engine LIVE
[Weather] is a signal.
We decode it._
A weather-probability station for Polymarket. It doesn't pitch — it transmits.
No luck. Just data.
// control.deck · 5 surfaces
verification required
live
Dashboard
pnl, open book, strategy cohorts, whale tape
live
Observability
pipeline health, cron deltas, quality traces
live
Trade Lifecycle
per-trade narrative · entry, adds, exits, resolve
beta
Whale Profiler
wallet-level fills, pnl reconstruction, cohorts
live
Backtest
walk-forward on 5M fills, bootstrap CIs
station.telemetry
·
transmitting…
auto-refresh · 30s
model
v4.9
XGB + Isotonic
win rate
—
on — resolved
nwp blend
6
ECMWF · GFS · ICON · GEM · UKMO · MF
paper book
—
— open
auc
—
walk-forward · bootstrap
cities
—
active stations · 24h
A forecast you can price is worth more
than a forecast you can publish.
than a forecast you can publish.
log · 2026-02-14 · the day the engine shipped
// 01protocols.yml
Three protocols. Zero fake overlays.
Every signal the station transmits is run against these. When they stop holding, we rewrite them in the open.
01
protocol · 0x01
The forecast is the signal.
Six NWP models blended into one calibrated probability. When the ensemble
disagrees, size shrinks — never zero. Uncertainty priced.
02
protocol · 0x02
Edge before the event.
Signals fire T−24h → T−2h. We disagree with consensus
before the print arrives, not after.
03
protocol · 0x03
Paper before capital.
Every strategy clears a paper gate first. Historical cards read the latest paper SoT; live cards stay live-only and never invent funded performance.